Research

Research & Further Reading

Kelly (1956) — A New Interpretation of Information Rate

The original paper developing the Kelly criterion for "optimal" risk budgets. There are many more accessible summaries of the content but the original paper is also worth a read.

Haghani & White — The Missing Billionaires

Interesting book about financial decision making and personal financial planning. It inspired various concepts for us and highlights the importance of real yields for retirement planning.

Ang & Bekaert (2004) — The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation

Paper explaining the application of Markov states to yield curve data.

SSRN 4137861 — HMM Models Applied to Inflation

HMM models specifically applied to inflation.

Office for National Statistics (ONS)

A treasure trove of official figures about the UK — from life expectancy over inflation to regional differences in house prices. A great source of data.

SSRN 883856 — An Additional Factor for Yield Curve Models

Original paper that suggested an additional factor to yield curve models, enabling a greater variety of yield curve shapes. It inspired many macroeconomic investigations on nominal and real yields.